She added that although Hezbollah has been thrown into disarray, it still has tens of thousands of trained fighters, and Israel does not have the military capability to fight on two fronts.
Genauer warned that should Israel and Iran come into conflict, the situation may become volatile and at a “cost that no one will want to contemplate”, as the United States could be drawn into the fray.
CAN THE US STOP THE GROWING CONFLICT?
Feierstein said there are likely indirect, behind-the-scenes discussions between Washington and Tehran – the two have had no formal diplomatic relations since 1980 – to limit the escalation, as neither wants an expansion of the conflict.
Still, the US has shown “little inclination to use its leverage” to restrain Israel, said Bohl.
“Israel has assessed – seemingly correctly, least for the moment – that it can carry out hawkish missions against their adversaries without triggering a region-wide war, and without causing a diplomatic crisis with the US,” he told CNA.
Analysts have repeatedly emphasised a Gaza ceasefire is still the elusive key to ending the conflict.
“At the core of this, this is still all about Gaza,” said Bohl.
“Without a resolution on Gaza, all of these secondary and tertiary conflicts will continue to have fuel for their fire.”
While the US remains an ally, Washington may be forced to take stronger action to rein in Israel if the conflict expands to cause geopolitical shock and affect oil prices, especially as the US election nears, said Bohl.
“If Israel is seen as a non-constructive partner, eventually, Washington – whether under Biden, Harris or Trump – will conclude that some sort of step needs to be taken to restrain Israeli behaviour,” he added.
