In return for its assistance, North Korea will almost certainly demand valuable military technology and materials, although there is much debate on just how much Russia will give away.
Presumably it is wary of conceding its best technologies, fearing (probably correctly) that North Korea will proliferate anything valuable given to it. Russia’s various challengers and competitors, including China, would likely be willing to pay North Korea for Russian technologies, if only to know what the Russians have.
But Russia is in a tight spot. Its war in Ukraine has dragged on for two and a half years. Its economy is suffering from the costs of the war and consequent international economic isolation. It is now highly dependent on Chinese assistance and forbearance, which is likely deeply humiliating for a country with great power pretensions.
A relationship with North Korea gives Russia an alternative, at least militarily, to an embarrassing dependence on Beijing.
Thus, if the war continues, Russia’s willingness to trade valuable technologies for assistance will likely increase. North Korea will surely take Russian food and hydrocarbons for its impoverished economy.
According to South Korea, North Korea has already received more than 9,000 containers from Russia, mostly containing food supplies. But what it almost certainly wants most are advanced nuclear and missile technologies.
For now that appears to be working. But there is no guarantee that such swaps will not be made in secret, and it would certainly make sense for North Korea to use Russian desperation to bargain for what it really wants.
So even if China posits to cleave to the sanctions on North Korea, Russia’s open alignment with North Korea, symbolised by the visits shared between the two countries’ leaders in June, effectively signals the end of sanctions – and, if Russia becomes desperate enough, the proliferation of Russian military high technologies.
Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University.
