What does it mean for Singapore and the region?
Dr Dhrubajyoti Samanta, a senior research fellow with the Earth Observatory of Singapore at Nanyang Technological University, pointed to the NOAA forecasting a weak La Nina in Southeast Asia.
This makes it “very likely” that it won’t be very wet or of severe concern beyond a typical La Nina.
Such conditions could even be useful for groundwater recharge – where water infiltrates deeper soil layers – and agriculture; while improving air quality, said Dr Samanta.
But Prof Roth noted that a La Nina over the next few months would coincide with Northeast monsoon season, which is already the wettest part of the year.
Apart from cooler air temperatures, there’s an increased likelihood of localised flooding when above-average rainfall coincides with periods of already high sea levels, such as during seasonal high tides, he said.
Dr Wang said some Southeast Asian countries could see a higher risk of flooding in low-lying areas with poor drainage, and landslides or mudslides in mountainous regions.
Apart from the threat to public health and lives, this can also disrupt planting and harvesting schedules or worse, destroy crops, thus reducing agriculture yields and resulting in economic loss.
For example, Malaysia’s 2021 floods affected more than 10,000 hectares of farmland, causing rice yield to drop by more than 200,000 tonnes, Dr Wang pointed out.
It would take years to recover the infrastructural damage and rice production is Malaysia is still not at an optimal level, he added.
As it is, most countries in the Indochina peninsula are already dealing with the after-effects of deadly storms in recent months.
Typhoon Yagi brought powerful winds and torrential rainfall to Vietnam, Thailand, Laos and Myanmar in September, killing hundreds and damaging factories and farmland.
And the Philippines was hit by several deadly storms in recent months, including Typhoon Gaemi in July, Yagi in September and Krathon in October.
