ISRAEL IS VIRTUALLY UNCHALLENGED
There have been some concerns that Israeli actions run the risk of igniting a wider war, or ending the ceasefire in Lebanon. These are misplaced.
As the past few months have shown, Israel is virtually unchallenged now. The United States has kept its foot off the brakes, and groups and countries in the region that could make life difficult for Israel have chosen to keep their powder dry and restrict their actions to pointless rhetoric.
The United Nations’ Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, warned Israel that its air strikes and ground invasion must stop, and it should not interfere with the transition of power in Syria. But what Israel is doing is no different from what the US and Turkey are also attempting: Securing their own interests.
America has sent in B-52 bombers to pound the Islamic State, while rebels backed by Ankara have seized territory in Syria’s north. All have taken advantage of the window of opportunity presented by the fall of Assad to draw a map of Syria that looks good to their eyes.
The real danger posed by the extremely complex situation in Syria is that this jostling puts the country on a path akin to that taken by Libya post-Muammar Gaddafi: A failed, conflict-ridden state with little prospect for resolution.
It could be argued that Syria is already there, but things could get much worse. It is worth remembering that the Islamic State emerged out of the ashes of the Syrian civil war, sparking terror in Europe and elsewhere, and inspiring sympathisers to plan attacks, even in Singapore.
It is uncertain if the rebel groups in Syria have indeed gone back on their ideals, despite the soothing noises emerging from Hayat Thahrir al-Sham, the largest of them, or whether it is just the Taliban by another name.
What can reasonably be concluded is that the actions of outside actors are an enabling factor for the latter scenario.
Carl Skadian, a former journalist and editor for 30 years, is Senior Associate Director at the Middle East Institute, NUS.
