WISHFUL THINKING
Needless to say, those claims proved to be rather premature. Most reflected wishful thinking more than any objective analysis. Even now, 12 months later, some observers are insisting that the junta is “in terminal decline”.
Despite its many woes, the junta has proven surprisingly resilient. It still controls Myanmar’s economic heartland and the bulk of the population. It has the support of Russia and China, both of which are providing arms and diplomatic protection. The junta can evade most sanctions against it and commands significant export revenues. It has also demonstrated that, when required, it can be flexible, and will strike ceasefire deals with its opponents.
The opposition movement has made remarkable progress in military terms, but it is still divided over strategic objectives. The ethnic armed organisations and NUG share the goal of destroying the SAC but beyond that, little has been agreed. Military victories have yielded large quantities of arms and ammunition, but the opposition still suffers from a lack of resources. The NUG has been unable to win formal recognition or lethal aid from any foreign governments.
It is difficult to predict what will happen in 2025. Myanmar has always had the ability to surprise observers. One critical factor to watch, however, will be the continuing loyalty and cohesion of the armed forces, which holds the key to the junta’s survival. There are clearly deep fissures in the Tatmadaw but, to date, it has maintained its internal discipline and, so-called “defectors” aside, obeyed the junta’s orders.
In that regard, however, the activation last year of a dormant conscription law constitutes a major gamble. For decades, great pains have been taken to shape and control the thinking of the armed forces rank and file. So the introduction of more than 20,000 resentful and potentially mutinous men and women, presumably all trained and armed, must be considered a real risk. It suggests that the junta’s military manpower shortage remains a serious problem.
