Trump recently doubled down on his suggestion to “clear out” Gaza’s 2.3 million citizens – though he has mentioned a figure of 1.5 million – by relocating them to Egypt and Jordan. Given the previous statements of the extremists in Netanyahu’s shaky coalition, nothing would please them more than a depopulated and annexed Gaza.
Cairo and Amman, as well as other Arab countries, have firmly rejected the idea. Hamas and the enfeebled Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have outrightly condemned it.
But Trump has insisted the Egyptian and Jordanian leaders would eventually come around because the US does a lot for them – referring presumably to their dependence on substantial annual American aid.
If this plan were to transpire, it would not only be a recipe for more bloodshed and instability in the Middle East, but also more betrayal of the Palestinian cause and the two-state solution by the international community.
While a ray of hope exists for the continuation of the ceasefire and the implementation of the ceasefire’s second stage, it is still very possible that Netanyahu will return to military action to destroy Hamas and annex part or all of Gaza along the lines of what Trump has suggested.
The Trump-Netanyahu bond is so strong that it could even enable the Israeli leader to declare sovereignty over the West Bank.
Given these uncertainties, the third stage of the ceasefire regarding the reconstruction of Gaza, which is estimated to be upwards of US$80 billion, is at this point nothing more than words on a piece of paper.
Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University, and an adjunct professor of social sciences at the University of Western Australia and the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.
