HEZBOLLAH WILL FEEL COMPELLED TO RESPOND
The pager strike brings us to the brink once again. The main difference this time is that it appears aimed at sending a warning.
Hezbollah will no doubt be compelled to respond. Not doing so would telegraph weakness, and magnify the humiliation of having thousands of its fighters crippled by an attack seemingly out of nowhere, by an unseen enemy.
The reported injury suffered by Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon will also force Tehran to consider a response.
Both sides know, however, that a full-fledged war would be devastating to each other. The Israeli military’s capabilities are well known. So are Hezbollah’s: Its arsenal of rockets and missiles allows it to strike much of Israel, including major population centres that have thus far remained unscathed.
This provides reasonable pause for cause. If any added incentive was needed, the pager attacks would provide that. Sadly, “reasonable” is not a word that can be used to describe much of what is happening in the region these days. Neither is “hope”.
Carl Skadian, a former journalist and editor for 30 years, is Senior Associate Director at the Middle East Institute, NUS.
