SYDNEY :Asian shares rallied on Monday after a benign reading on U.S. inflation restored some hope for further policy easing next year, while there was relief that Washington had averted a government shutdown.
After the bonanza of recent central bank decisions, this week is much quieter with only the minutes of a few of those meetings due. There are no Federal Reserve speeches and U.S. data is of secondary importance.
Otherwise the themes were largely the same, with the dollar underpinned by a relatively strong economy and higher bond yields, which in turn is a burden for commodities and gold.
It is also a headache for emerging market countries, which are having to intervene to stop their currencies from falling too far and stoking domestic inflation.
For now, the afterglow from the U.S. inflation report was enough to lift MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan by 0.3 per cent.
Japan’s Nikkei gained 1.2 per cent, while the Topix automaker index climbed 1.3 per cent helped by signs of progress in a potential merger between Honda and Nissan.
South Korean shares climbed 1.3 per cent, while Taiwan’s market bounced 2.6 per cent.
Chinese blue chips rose 0.7 per cent, as 10-year bonds yields hit a fresh record low of 1.665 per cent despite efforts by the central bank to stop the relentless decline.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures dipped 0.2 per cent, while FTSE futures and DAX futures were near flat.
S&P 500 futures added 0.4 per cent, while Nasdaq futures firmed 0.6 per cent. The S&P 500 fell almost 2 per cent last week and the Nasdaq 1.8 per cent, though the latter is still up 30 per cent for the year.
Analysts at BofA noted the S&P 500 was up 23 per cent for the year, but if the 12 largest companies were excluded the gain was only 8 per cent. They cautioned such extreme concentration was a vulnerability going into 2025.
Wall Street had rallied on Friday when a key gauge of core U.S. inflation printed lower than expected at 0.11 per cent, providing a partial antidote to the Fed’s hawkishness earlier in the week.
FEWER CUTS
Fed funds futures swung to imply a 53 per cent chance of a rate cut in March and 62 per cent for May, though they only have two quarter-point easings to 3.75-4.0 per cent priced in for all of 2025. A few months ago, the market had hoped rates would bottom around 3.0 per cent.
The prospect of fewer cuts has combined with expectations of more debt-funding government spending to pressure bond markets, with 10-year yields surging almost 42 basis points in just two weeks for the biggest such increase since April 2022.
“The recent firming in core inflation has interacted with a rising threat of tariffs and immigration restrictions to temper the Fed’s inflation optimism,” said JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli.
“Given our inflation and unemployment rate forecasts, we continue to look for 75bp of cuts next year with a hold in January and a quarterly cadence thereafter.”
In currency markets, the dollar index held near two-year highs at 107.720, having climbed 1.9 per cent for the month so far. The euro looked vulnerable at $1.0441, having again tested support around $1.0331/43 last week. [USD/]
The dollar was firm at 156.55, having gained 4.5 per cent so far in December, but the yen faces more threats of Japanese government intervention should it challenge the 160.00 barrier.
The strong dollar combined with high bond yields to weigh on gold, which stood at $2,625 an ounce after slipping 1 per cent last week.
Oil prices edged higher along with other risk assets, though the high dollar remains a burden as are concerns over Chinese demand following dismal retail sales figures last week.
Brent rose 36 cents to $73.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 40 cents to $69.86 per barrel.
