CRISIS IN MYANMAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
Analysts say the Myanmar crisis has divided ASEAN, with the bloc last year making a rare decision to leave the military junta out of the grouping’s twice-yearly leaders’ summits and foreign ministers’ meetings.
Jakarta-based international relations expert from non-governmental organisation Centre of Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Lina Alexandra believes that the move to replace Myanmar with the Philippines as ASEAN chair in 2026 means that the crisis there is forecast to continue till then.
“Looking at the complexity of the crisis, it is unlikely it will be resolved in the next three years.
“This crisis has made ASEAN not united, but this decision (to give the chairmanship to the Philippines) will restore that unity,” said Mdm Alexandra.
She added that Myanmar would not have been able to fulfil its duties as ASEAN chair in 2026 due to the logistics involved, including hosting numerous meetings and summits.
The rotating ASEAN chair would need to prepare the agenda for the chairmanship at least a year or two in advance, and Mdm Alexandra believes that this would be difficult for Myanmar given the current situation in the country.
Associate Professor Dinna Prapto Raharja, the executive director of think-tank Synergy Policies, said the move to skip Myanmar from the chairmanship signals that it is a very fragile country compared to the rest of the ASEAN members.
“ASEAN could have done more for Myanmar … there is very little probability that Laos, as the next chair, would be able to solve this problem,” she said.
As Southeast Asia’s largest economy and one of the founding fathers of ASEAN, Indonesia has long been touted as the group’s big brother. On the other hand, Laos is a smaller country and only joined ASEAN in 1997, 30 years after the establishment of the group.
“If it’s being delayed until Malaysia becomes chair or even the Philippines, it is unacceptable.”
