BEIJING: China’s economic growth is likely to slow to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and cool further to 4.2 per cent in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, with policymakers poised to roll out fresh stimulus measures to soften the blow from impending U.S. tariff hikes.
Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 4.9 per cent in 2024 – largely meeting the government’s annual growth target of around 5 per cent, helped by stimulus measures and strong exports, according to the median forecasts of 64 economists polled by Reuters.
But the world’s second-largest economy faces heightened trade tensions with the United States as President-elect Donald Trump, who has proposed hefty tariffs on Chinese goods, is set to return to the White House next week.
“Potential US tariff hikes are the biggest headwind for China’s growth this year, and could affect exports, corporate capex and household consumption,” analysts at UBS said in a note.
“We (also) foresee property activity continuing to fall in 2025, though with a smaller drag on growth.”
Growth likely improved to 5.0 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from the third-quarter’s 4.6 per cent pace as a flurry of support measures began to kick in, the poll showed.
On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 1.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.9 per cent in July-September, the poll showed.
The government is due to release fourth-quarter and full-year GDP data, along with December activity data, on Friday.
China’s economy has struggled for traction since a post-pandemic rebound quickly fizzled out, with a protracted property crisis, weak demand and high local government debt levels weighing heavily on activity, souring both business and consumer confidence.
Policymakers have unveiled a blitz of stimulus measures since September, including cuts in interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements ratios (RRR) and a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.36 trillion) municipal debt package. They have also expanded a trade-in scheme for consumer goods such as appliances and autos, helping to revive retail sales.
Analysts expect more stimulus to be rolled out this year, but say the scope and size of China’s moves may depend on how quickly and aggressively Trump implements tariffs or other punitive measures.
