Will Biden exit the race?
On Tuesday, Texas congressman Lloyd Doggett became the first in the party to publicly call for Biden to withdraw.
Biden, 81, has been on a campaign blitz seen as damage control.
“I know I’m not a young man, to state the obvious … but I know how to do this job,” the president said to huge cheers at a rally the day after the debate.
He has also vowed to stay in the contest during a call with campaign staff and insisted in meetings with Democratic lawmakers and governors that he is fit for reelection.
Biden’s unwillingness to step aside in the face of fierce criticism means he would need to be removed from the Democratic Party ticket.
Names being floated include popular cabinet members and Democratic governors like Gavin Newsom from California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania.
However, Vice President Kamala Harris is the top alternative to replace Biden if he decides not to continue his reelection campaign, according to sources that Reuters spoke to.
She may do better than expected.
The consensus view until recently has been that she is unpopular and would struggle against Trump. However, a Reuters/Ipsos poll on Tuesday showed Harris trailed Trump by one percentage point at 42 per cent to 43 per cent, a difference that was well within the poll’s 3.5 percentage point margin of error, and significantly a showing statistically just as strong as Biden’s.
However, there is still no obvious candidate who would do better than Biden.
Any alternative would be untested and unproven, at least compared with Biden – the only person to have defeated Trump in an election.
Analysts also pointed out the nominee would be appointed, not elected, which could anger a large portion of the Democratic base and fracture unity.
In any case, Harris, Newsom and other top Democrats, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have publicly backed Biden, even though there remains no consensus within the party about whether he should – or even could – be removed.
“Biden has the clear mandate of a majority of the Democratic Party (and) he’s the only actor capable of unifying the various factions in the party,” said Clayton Allen, Eurasia Group’s US director.
“The only way to force him out is if he chooses to drop out. We put a 15 per cent chance on Biden leaving the race.”
And so the prospect of Biden not being a candidate seems unlikely if not remote at this stage.
