HEADACHE MINERALS
So let’s rebrand the conundrum – let’s talk about headache minerals rather than critical minerals. The problem? That doesn’t sound nearly as sexy.
Obviously, if one is in the business of getting read and building a brand, as think tanks and lobbyists are, the very worst possible headline for a pamphlet, research paper – or, God forbid, opinion column – is one that concludes “all is largely fine”. One could instead write “please, don’t read this” and go home.
But that doesn’t attract eyeballs. Instead, today’s influencers will focus on worst-case scenarios: supply chain Armageddon.
When will the shortage of critical minerals hit? “Soon.” How bad would it be? “Severe” sounds about right, but best to say “destructive”. What and who will be affected? Point to everything and everyone, but if you really want to be read in the White House – and that’s a must – say “national security”. What’s the mineral at issue? Pick the most obscure element from the periodic table, and call it “critical”, “strategic”, or, even better, “rare”.
The Heritage Foundation, a Washington think tank close to the Trump administration, produced a paper in December 2024 warning about potential shortages of critical minerals undermining the defence industry. Ironically, the paper sounds very much like the similar one the think tank published in 1981, also warning about shortages.
Another Washington think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, published its own report, flagging a “national security imperative” in critical minerals such as lithium iron phosphate.
We simply don’t know what American engineers will invent next. But we can safely assume they will try to replace whatever is in short-supply and expensive.
