We made a similar list of overlooked stories last year. For the sake of honesty, let’s see how those predictions held up.
Coal consumption has peaked: When Russia invaded Ukraine and Beijing ordered its miners to dig up more solid fuel, there was a rash of headlines about a supposed “return to coal”. We argued that 2023 might instead prove the peak for global coal demand.
That’s looking less likely now. The International Energy Agency reckons consumption rose again in 2024 and will plateau from 2023 out to 2027. November’s trade, output and inventory data in China, the biggest consumer, suggests consumption this year was only about 6.5 million tonnes, or 0.1 per cent, higher than in 2023. But there’s little prospect of the precipitous drop that’s needed.
The wind rises: A spate of bad news for wind power toward the end of 2023 led to feverish claims that something was wrong with the entire business model. That doesn’t look to be the case, although developing markets such as China, Latin America and central Asia seem to be performing better than Europe and the US.
In global terms, installations will hit a record 124 gigawatts this year, according to BloombergNEF. They’ve upgraded their forecast for new 2024 to 2030 capacity by a cumulative 151 GW, 16 per cent higher than 12 months earlier.
EVs are hitting price parity: It’s hard to credit it these days, but the big fear for EVs in 2023 was that soaring raw materials prices would prevent them competing on price with gasoline for years to come, if ever.
In fact, the big story of 2024 was that falling lithium-ion prices had made Chinese electric cars so cheap that the US and EU raised eye-watering tariff barriers to protect themselves. Parity is well and truly here: Average battery EV prices are now below US$100 per kilowatt-hour, an oft-cited tipping point for that measure.
WHAT TO EXPECT?
Averting catastrophic climate change was always going to involve plenty of steps forward as well as steps back.
Still, there are plenty of positive trends out there, once you peer past the more alarmist headlines. However gloomy things may look right now, the transition to a cleaner global economy isn’t flagging yet.
