Commentary: If the US is a ‘landlord seeking rent’, how must Southeast Asia rethink defence?

DEALING WITH A CHANGED AMERICA

From a wider perspective, Asian countries have options if the US decides to upend its economic and security role in the region. One, it has been suggested that countries in the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework go it alone without the US, which is likely to ditch the deal.

Second, regional countries will have to work with middle powers, such as Quad members Australia, India and Japan. In January, for example, Japan and Indonesia boosted bilateral cooperation in defence, energy and food security.

Third, some countries eyeing China – say, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea – might have to recalibrate their hardline positions towards Beijing or establish guardrails to prevent the outbreak of conflict.

While these are reasonable options, Mr Trump’s penchant for deal-making raises the dreary prospect that he could strike deals with China on critical hotspots such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, quite literally over the heads of regional countries.

One thing is certain: If the US walks back on regional leadership and security commitments that have been in place since the end of World War II, Asian countries will have to recalibrate their positions.

Speaking in 2020 (the last year of Mr Trump’s first term), then Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted that the world had benefited much from US leadership for decades. “If America is in a different mode, we will get by and I think other configurations will eventually work out, but it would be a loss,” he said.

The same dilemma rings true today.

William Choong is a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, and the Managing Editor of Fulcrum, the institute’s commentary and analysis website on Southeast Asia.