THE POWER OF THE FEMALE VOTE
Unlike Hillary Clinton, who was polarising to many female voters when she ran for president as Democratic candidate in 2016 (her flip comment about not staying home to bake cookies turned off many stay-at-home mothers), Harris attracts support from women voters in every subgroup.
Even many working-class white women whose husbands are likely to vote Trump favour her, perhaps because she talks to them about kitchen-table issues such as the cost of living crisis. Her plan for expanded child tax credit in particular was a hit.
Even if Trump were not such a polarising candidate, targeting female swing voters is a smart political strategy.
Women are registered to vote in the US at higher rates than men. What’s more, in every presidential election since 1980, the proportion of eligible female adults who have voted has exceeded the proportion of eligible male adults who have done so.
But while 2024 is already being called the “gendered” election, class may yet play a significant role in how women vote. There’s little doubt that college-educated women, both white and particularly women of colour, will turn out for Harris. Working-class white women, particularly those who are Catholic or evangelical, are a harder sell, as evidenced by the fact that the race is neck and neck in parts of the rural Midwest and south.
In fact, according to the Washington Monthly’s Gender Gap tracker, the vice president lost a bit of her lead with women in the penultimate week of the race, even as Trump widened his margin with men. That means Harris’ current gender advantage looks more like Hillary Clinton’s in the race against Trump rather than the margins enjoyed by Joe Biden or Barack Obama during their victories.
The politics of identity are about to be put to a nail-biting test.
