North Korea’s nukes are the shield which protects it from exactly this sort of airstrike and other, perhaps harsher, military action. Again and again, this nuclear escalation fear has constrained the US, South Korea and Japan from striking, even after provocation.
In 2010, Seoul wanted to respond to a deadly sinking of a navy ship in the Yellow Sea and a separate artillery attack on a South Korean island that resulted in civilian deaths. In 2022, Japan wanted to respond to North Korea conducting a long-range missile test over its islands.
In each case, there was little to no response, likely for fear of nuclear escalation.
THE BEST DETERRENT
Israel’s airstrikes will likely work in the short term to set back Iran’s nuclear programme but in the medium-term they will only worsen the nuclear threat everywhere.
The strikes will encourage illiberal, anti-democratic states everywhere to consider a nuclear deterrent as the best means to safeguard their security.
Iran negotiated in good faith and was met by hawkish ideology and airstrikes; North Korea did not negotiate, raced for nuclear weapons no matter the costs, and never faces retaliation.
Rogues everywhere – including Iran itself – will see the wisdom of the North Korean strategy more clearly after this.
Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. He writes a monthly column for CNA, published every second Monday.
