ALMOST RISK-FREE DEFIANCE
With Israeli forces already fighting in Gaza and Lebanon, the Netanyahu government may have its own reasons not to escalate the direct conflict with Iran right now. But if the Israelis decide that they do want to take much tougher direct action, they have already shown that they are perfectly happy to ignore the Biden administration’s calls for restraint. The White House may hope that by working with Israel, it can exercise more influence over the strength and nature of the Israeli response.
The US had been urging Israel for many months not to launch an assault on Hezbollah. After Israel opened hostilities last month, the Biden administration joined the UK, France and others in urging an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon. It was ignored once again.
The Netanyahu government’s readiness simply to ignore the wishes of its closest ally and security guarantor stems from a paradox at the heart of US policy.
The Biden administration can and does urge Israel to show restraint in Gaza and Lebanon. But it will also always protect Israel from the consequences of escalation, citing the overarching commitment to defend it from Iran and its other regional enemies.
As a result, the Israeli government understands that defying the Biden administration is almost risk-free. Indeed, there could even be some benefits if it draws the US into deploying its military might against Iran.
