CAN THE REGIME SURVIVE?
For now, the immediate focus of the international community is ensuring a sustainable ceasefire. No one wants a protracted war, though it is almost certain that the US will continue to maintain strong deterrence in the region.
A ceasefire also ensures that the Straits of Hormuz remains open, reducing the risks of supply disruptions and volatile prices. This is good for Singapore and the wider region, including China which is one of Iran’s biggest energy importers.
When negotiations resume, Iran’s immediate asks will be less about its nuclear programme and more about ensuring Isreal is reigned in. In the background, however, ensuring the regime’s survival will be paramount.
Regime change was not a stated goal when Israel launched its attacks, but it may well be an unintended consequence. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ruled Iran since the death of leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.
In the 36 years, the conservative Khamenei has consolidated power through the control of clerics who exercise authority over Iranian society and function as gatekeepers with veto over who contests elections. He has also used domestic security apparatus to silence critics and crush revolts, such as the 2022 protests against mandatory hijab rules for Iranian women.
Under Khamenei’s rule and numerous international sanctions, Iran’s economy has also suffered. Despite controlling one of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, Iran suffers from mass unemployment and inflation. Added to that is rampant corruption by the clerics, military and the government.
Together, these factors have significantly reduced the support that the regime once enjoyed after the revolution in 1979.
Also not gone unnoticed – especially by Iranian youth – are changes in the region. United Arab Emirates and Qatar are now prosperous, globally integrated countries that were once far behind Iran. The rapid changes in regional rival Saudi Arabia, which has replaced exporting Wahhabism with attracting billions in international capital to transform the kingdom, makes Iran appear even more outdated and regressive.
