HUN SEN FACTOR
Rubbing salt into the wound is the fact that former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen has shown – with the leak of the conversation with Ms Paetongtarn in which she appeared to be subservient – that he can destabilise Thai politics.
Ms Paetongtarn’s father and Hun Sen had up till then been close friends. At Hun Sen’s 71st birthday celebration in August 2023, he referred to Thaksin as his “godbrother”.
“It’s a disaster, this is basically a foreign country dictating what happens in Thai politics,” a Pheu Thai insider told me.
“You can’t change prime ministers like you change your clothes. Thailand needs a stable government to negotiate and do deals with other countries, but the bureaucracy has been in neutral gear since Paetongtarn’s suspension in July despite politicians pushing for things to happen,” he added.
Till date nobody appears to know for certain what lies at the bottom of the falling out between Thaksin and Hun Sen, though two sources told me that Thailand’s pressure – itself under pressure from China – on Cambodia-based scam centres has been a factor.
Whatever the reason, Ms Paetongtarn’s seemingly politically naive phone call with “uncle” Hun Sen triggered nationalist protests against her in Bangkok and precipitated a border clash between Thailand and Cambodia that killed at least 40 and brought cross-border trade to an abrupt and acrimonious halt.
The conflict reverberated, even drawing United States President Donald Trump into pressuring both parties to a ceasefire. This in turn kicked off a hurried face-saving off-ramp for ASEAN in the form of a meeting in Malaysia chaired by Malaysian Prime Minister and current ASEAN chair Anwar Ibrahim, where Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire.
The tension is far from over; the ceasefire holds but only tenuously. A new prime minister in Thailand would have his or her hands full managing the sensitive relationship with Cambodia, while pressured to appease nationalists in Thailand, where the powerful army has had a chance to wave its own nationalist credentials.
