Commentary: The fall of Bashar al-Assad is unlikely to lead to peace in Syria

INITIALLY TRIUMPHANT

Many analysts argued that Assad had won the Syrian civil war by 2018, and the US under Donald Trump substantially withdrew its support for the Syrian rebels.

Assad’s government, meanwhile, retained considerable support from Russia, Iran and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.

But even though Assad’s forces maintained control of much of the country and its key infrastructure, they proved incapable of permanently defeating Syrian rebel forces. Support for Assad’s regime, furthermore, began to wane among his allies for various reasons.

Russia found itself in a protracted conflict in Ukraine. Israel revealed Iranian vulnerabilities in a series of retaliations over the past year. Even more significant, Israel killed several Hezbollah leaders over the last several months, severely compromising its military power.

The Assad regime did not possess a wide enough basis for support among its own people to replace their external allies.

Simultaneously, however, the Syrian rebel forces also underwent a transformation.

THE CHANGING NATURE OF THE REBELS

Syrian opposition forces have undergone a stark evolution following years of struggle.

It’s important to note that these disparate forces were never entirely united. Instead, the Syrian opposition ranged from liberal and moderate elements to Islamic fundamentalist forces. The only thing that truly united them was opposition to Assad’s tyranny.

The withdrawal of support by the US and many of its allies undermined the position of the more moderate elements of the opposition. Furthermore, Syria’s Self-Defense Forces suffered significant losses against Turkey in 2018 and have yet to regain their former strength.

The loss of Western allies and the enduring nature of the Syrian civil war itself gave rise to increasingly radicalised voices. Most prominent among them is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It formed in 2017 from the merger of various fundamentalist elements among the Syrian rebel forces.

A plethora of countries have designated Hayat Tahrir al-Sham a terrorist organisation linked to other radical organisations in the region. It is the most powerful armed group among the Syrian rebel forces.

While Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has claimed it’s progressed from its extremist origins, that remains unclear.