TRUMP’S UNEASY ALLIANCE WITH CONGRESS
Republicans control both chambers of Congress, as well as the White House. But the historically thin margin of Republican control in the House of Representatives and the perennial thorn of the Senate filibuster could threaten Trump’s legislative agenda.
Until three expected vacancies are filled in the House, the Republicans will not be able to afford a single defector in a party-line vote. House Speaker Mike Johnson is already encountering hurdles in consolidating support behind an all-encompassing “MAGA Bill”, which he hopes to introduce to Congress later this year.
In 2017, when Trump had a similarly friendly Congress with a far more comfortable margin, Republicans still struggled to unite behind a legislative agenda. Major tax cuts were passed, but changes to Obamacare and other priorities failed amid party infighting.
This paved the way for sweeping Democrat gains in the 2018 midterm elections – a pattern that could be repeated in 2026 depending on Republicans’ progress in the next two years.
Like Barack Obama before him, Trump may turn to executive orders to sidestep Congress, particularly if Republicans lose control of the House in 2026. Indeed, his executive order to suspend the TikTok ban circumvents a bipartisan law passed by Congress last year and recently upheld by the conservative Supreme Court.
Such moves can generate friction with lawmakers – even those in his own party.
As recently as Sunday, Johnson insisted the US “will enforce the law” against TikTok. And two Republican senators warned against offering TikTok any form of extension, which they claimed would have “no legal basis”.
Divisions between Republicans are also evident over the possibility of tariffs and the future of Trump’s immigration policy.
For now, these tensions will be put aside amid the ongoing inauguration euphoria. But they will inevitably re-emerge and could well result in a return to legislative gridlock and inaction.
Such delays could find little patience among Americans anxious for rapid solutions to intractable problems.
Samuel Garrett is a research associate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney. This commentary first appeared in The Conversation.
