Even before his shocking announcement on a Gaza takeover, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, as well as the Secretary General of the Palestine Liberation Organization, had written to Mr Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, and urged him to work with them on implementing the two-state solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that Mr Trump now has all but doomed.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman condemned it in no uncertain terms, unequivocally ruling out normalisation with Israel in the absence of a viable Palestinian state.
Without Saudi backing, Trump’s other signature Middle East policy – a regional, US-backed alliance against Iran to force Tehran “to make a great deal” – will also struggle to get off the ground.
A return to his maximum pressure campaign against Iran is now certain following an executive order to this effect. But without broader Arab-Israeli rapprochement, the success of this policy will be more limited.
For years, Tehran has managed to exploit the plight of the Palestinians and the lack of Arab support for their cause. Iran has forged an alliance of proxies and enlisted them in the fight against Israel while also mobilising anger among ordinary Arabs and channelling it against the ruling monarchies in the Gulf states.
The regime in Tehran may be weaker now than at any time in the past decade as a result of repeated air strikes by Israel and the wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, but the conditions that allowed it to become a dangerous regional power are still there.
