An example in Ukraine is the use of artificial intelligence to surveil huge tranches of data from Russian media, Russians’ personal social networks, government announcements and the behavior of Russia’s commercial sector. This helps discern the enemy’s capacity to continue the war, its recruiting trends, civilian morale, the flow of draft dodgers departing the country, and other key indicators.
While not classified, such information can be assembled like a mosaic to find valuable insights that can become actionable at the operational and tactical levels.
Next and most obviously is the gathering of intelligence.
This involves obtaining the answers to the “known unknowns” on the battlefield. How will the Russians divide their forces between the current offensives in Donbas and Kursk? How many air sorties will Moscow launch over the next week? What are their targets? Where are they storing fuel, ordnance and unmanned aircraft? Where, when and how – in real time – are the Russian bombers, missiles and drones going to be coming against Ukrainian cities?
A PICTURE WORTH A MILLION WORDS
Intelligence is a difficult and intricate mix of human reporting; data from overhead sensors like long-dwell drones; electronic signal collection (cell phones, UHF radio communications); cyber intrusions to collect the most sensitive information; hyperspectral analysis and a host of other tools.
Intelligence is the superpower of the US military: No other NATO ally can come close to matching American capabilities in collection, analysis and dissemination. It has been freely shared with Ukraine, and it has been a major part of keeping it in the fight.
When I commanded US European Command from Stuttgart, Germany, a decade ago, I marvelled at the Star Trek-like intelligence fusion centre in my headquarters, where enormous technical abilities were combined with brightest analytic human minds.
Believe me, when Washington suddenly cut off intelligence last week, for the Ukrainians it would have been like being in the boxing ring and suddenly having a blindfold put over your eyes.
