The US$100,000 fee, along with a proposed “weighted selection process” that favours high-wage applicants, could shift this dynamic. It moves the mechanism from lottery towards price: access determined not by chance, but by willingness (and ability) to pay.
Seen in this way, talent becomes a scarce resource with a price tag, much like goods facing tariffs. In theory, such a system could provide predictability for firms while raising revenue for governments.
SKILLED WORKERS VALUE LONG-TERM SECURITY
But the analogy quickly breaks down, because people are not standardised commodities. With goods, tariffs shift prices and supply chains. With people, the stakes are higher.
Hiring an international engineer is not only about paying a fee. It involves relocating families, investing in training and building careers.
What makes labour different from goods is that flows cannot be easily rerouted or stockpiled. A shipment of steel can be redirected in weeks, but the relocation of skilled professionals involves families, institutions and life trajectories.
Once those choices are made, they are sticky. This makes visible changes in visa regimes unusually powerful: They can shift beliefs and redirect flows for years to come.
This is why visa rules matter not only for their cost but for the expectations they generate. Firms expand where they expect a reliable pool of skilled workers. Professionals move where they believe long-term security is likely.
A large visa fee, especially one designed to shock, becomes a visible marker that shapes these expectations. The result is that decisions about where to work, where to invest, and where to raise families are guided less by today’s costs than by tomorrow’s anticipated stability.
THE GLOBAL RACE FOR TALENT
It is in this environment of signals, rather than reciprocal measures, that countries now compete.
While the Trump administration has framed this visa fee change as a way to boost American workers by reducing competition from foreigners, the broader reality is that many countries face constraints in producing enough skilled workers who are well matched to the evolving demands of today’s economy.
