THE BIGGER PICTURE
The general shift to the political extremes, however, should not be mistaken for a broader tendency towards accommodating Russia. This is certainly part of the agenda of Orban and Fico, as well as of elements in the German and Austrian far right (and to an extent the German far left). But others in the European right, like Italy’s Giorgia Meloni and France’s Marine Le Pen, have clearly distanced themselves from Putin’s war. Meloni has gone beyond that and been a strong and outspoken supporter of Ukraine.
Those European leaders closest to the Russian president’s agenda also share a similar anti-democratic and authoritarian streak. Whatever their reasons for doing so, they appear to be working towards weakening Western support for Ukraine and eroding Western leadership in the current international order – much like Putin himself.
They might all be hoping that the return of Donald Trump to the White House will benefit their own aspirations. And in the short term, this may well prove to be the case. Putin may get a good deal from Trump on Ukraine. Orban, Fico and others may get audiences with Trump (and financial support from Elon Musk).
Yet, for Trump and his team, the big prize is defeating China, and both Putin and Orban are likely to fall out of the incoming American president’s good graces if they are unwilling to cut their ties with Beijing – something almost inconceivable for Russia to do.
And Putin’s Eastern European acolytes would also do well to remember that in Putin’s imperial mindset there is no place for truly independent neighbours. This is what prompted the invasion of Ukraine and there is no guarantee that Putin’s vision of Russia as a great power will be confined to the borders of the former Soviet Union.
In fact, there is nothing to suggest that Putin’s re-imagined Russian empire would not be more like the former communist bloc that extended all the way to the Berlin Wall.
In the future, European populists may thus come to regret the erosion of Western institutions like NATO and the EU which they now appear so keen to achieve at Putin’s behest.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Studies.
