THE ROAD AHEAD FOR SOUTH KOREA
In the longer term, there could be significant implications in five areas.
First, political reform in South Korea. Most agree that the president wields too much power under the current constitution and hence favour some sort of political reform. Two major proposals are either to adopt parliamentary system or to shorten the presidential term to four years with the possibility of re-election. Regardless of which outcome, the focus will be on reducing presidential powers from the current level.
Second, political polarisation. It is what makes South Korean democracy vibrant, but it has also stifled political debate and substantive progress in the country. Whenever there is a turnover of political power in Korea, the winner has taken revenge on the other political group. This is why South Korean presidents have not fared well after retirement.
It also polarises South Korean society, with many residents following their favoured political parties or politicians almost with religious zeal, regarding them as saviours or martyrs fighting against some evil force. It is politicians who have produced such polarisation and antagonism, and it must be they who need to fix it.
Third, the place and legitimacy of the military in South Korean society. Yoon’s martial law turned what seemed like paranoia among Korea’s political left that the military could be used for domestic politics into a legitimate concern. It has further weakened the legitimacy of the military, which could affect its operation and capabilities.
This does not bode well for South Korea, which is technically at war with North Korea and hence needs a strong and well-disciplined military for national security.
Fourth, the future of the conservative party. Ever since the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, the conservatives have been mired in power struggles among themselves. Other than the previous presidential election that gave a narrow victory to Yoon, the conservative party has lost all other elections, often in landslide defeat.
Now that Yoon has been impeached with some ruling party members joining the cause, the conservative party will go into further in-house fighting and division, and this could give free reign to the main opposition party, Democratic Party, which already controls the National Assembly.
For democracy to function well, power must be checked and balanced, and this is why the conservative party must survive, but that will only happen if they can regain public trust. For that to happen, they must engage in serious self-reflection and soul-searching.