SINGAPORE: Economists have lowered their forecasts for Singapore’s growth and inflation this year and are expecting a further easing of monetary policy next month, a survey of forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) showed on Wednesday (Jun 18).
Geopolitical tensions were seen as the biggest downside risks for the economy, while milder-than-expected or an easing of trade tensions was the most cited upside risk, the responses from 20 economists for the June quarter survey found. The median forecast for growth was cut to 1.7 per cent from 2.6 per cent in the March quarter survey. In April, the government lowered its forecast for 2025 growth to 0 per cent to 2 per cent, citing the impact of US tariffs.
Almost three in five respondents expect the central bank to further ease monetary policy settings at a review next month, the survey found. The MAS loosened monetary policy in January and April on the back of expected slower inflation and growth this year.
The median forecasts for headline inflation and core inflation for 2025 were lowered to 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively, the survey showed.
At its April policy review, the MAS forecast lowered its forecast for core inflation to 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent in 2025. In March, the annual core inflation rate was 0.5 per cent, the lowest rate in more than three years. The survey was sent out to respondents on May 22, the same day final first-quarter GDP data was released.
