If the no-confidence vote does indeed go through, Barnier would have to tender his resignation but Macron may ask him and his government to stay on in a caretaker role to handle day-to-day business while he seeks a new prime minister, which could well happen only next year.
One option would be for Macron to name a government of technocrats with no political programme, hoping that could help survive a no-confidence vote. In any case, there can be no new snap parliamentary elections before July.
As far as the budget is concerned, if parliament has not adopted it by Dec 20, the caretaker government could invoke constitutional powers to pass it by ordinance.
However, that would be risky as there is a legal grey area about whether a caretaker government can use such powers. And that would be sure to trigger uproar from the opposition.
A more likely move would be for the caretaker government to propose special emergency legislation to roll over spending limits and tax provisions from this year. But that would mean that savings measures Barnier had planned would fall by the wayside.
