SINGAPORE: Political parties keen to contest in the west of Singapore will likely have to relook their strategies, with the redrawing of electoral boundaries in the region, said political analysts on Tuesday (Mar 11).
“The west of Singapore has been redrawn to quite a big extent” compared to the 2020 General Election, said Dr Teo Kay Key, a research fellow with the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Institute of Policy Studies (IPS).
This region is likely to see a lot of activity, given that political parties interested in the area may need to recalibrate or relook their strategies on where to contest, she added.
Independent political observer Dr Felix Tan stopped short of commenting on whether the boundaries in the west would favour the People’s Action Party (PAP) or the opposition parties that intend to contest there.
But splitting Jurong GRC into Jurong West and Jurong East and combining them with West Coast and Bukit Batok respectively indicates that the political parties involved will have to rethink their strategies, he added.
In 2020, the PAP team led by then Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam defeated Red Dot United in Jurong GRC with 74.62 per cent of the vote, making it the incumbent’s best performing constituency for the second consecutive election.
“I think it’s about relooking at how best they can get the support, or garner support from those residents within these redrawn boundaries,” said Dr Tan.
The changes to the electoral boundaries brought “no huge surprises”, he added, noting that most of the boundaries were redrawn because of the changing number of voters within the constituencies.
NUS associate professor of political science Bilveer Singh noted that the boundary changes affected a significant majority of wards and broke “the past taboo of dabbling into opposition wards”.
Associate Professor Tan Ern Ser, an adjunct principal research fellow with IPS, called the move significant as the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) has typically not made changes to opposition-held wards.
The boundaries of Aljunied GRC, held by the Workers’ Party (WP), were redrawn for the first time since the 2011 hustings, when the opposition party first captured the ward.
Polling districts in Tampines West and the east of Bedok Reservoir will be moved to Tampines GRC, with the changes affecting about 3,900 electors.
According to the government gazette, 150,821 votes were cast in Aljunied GRC in the 2020 election.
Assoc Prof Singh said that with part of Aljunied GRC joining Tampines GRC, the PAP’s hold on Tampines may be weakened if the WP fields a team there.
MORE POLITICAL CONTESTATION
According to the report released by the EBRC on Tuesday (Mar 11), five new Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs) and six new Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) have been created.
The six new SMCs are Bukit Gombak, Jalan Kayu, Jurong Central, Queenstown, Sembawang West and Tampines Changkat. There are 15 in total.
Gone from the map are the SMCs of Yuhua, Bukit Batok, Hong Kah North, MacPherson and Punggol West, which have been absorbed into GRCs.
Overall, one additional SMC and one additional GRC have been added to the mix. There will be eight four-seater GRCs in the 2025 General Election, up from six in 2020, and 10 five-seater GRCs, down from 11 in the last election.
Assoc Prof Singh noted that new SMCs have been carved out of “safe (PAP) GRCs” – for example, Sembawang West SMC from Sembawang GRC, currently helmed by Health Minister Ong Ye Kung. This would likely benefit the incumbent PAP, unless it is faced with strong challengers from a major opposition party, he said.
Singapore Management University’s (SMU) associate professor of law Eugene Tan said SMCs are “always popular” with opposition parties because they are seen to provide for fairer contests.
However, he highlighted that multiple opposition parties contesting the same seat is seen as not ideal. “Straight fights are the preferred mode,” he said.
Having fewer MPs in GRCs while adding one or two more SMCs each General Election are the “right moves” to build stronger connections between voters and their constituencies, he added.
NUS’ associate professor of political science Chong Ja Ian said the introduction of new SMCs and some smaller GRCs allows for more competition.
Smaller opposition parties, beyond the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and WP, which have seats in parliament, could contest in these areas, potentially leading to more three-cornered fights, he added.
They can be “more competitive” because contesting in smaller constituencies requires less resources, said Assoc Prof Chong.
While parties that currently have no seats may feel that single-seat battles enhance their chances of getting into parliament, this could ultimately lead to more multi-cornered contests, said IPS’ Assoc Prof Tan.
Introducing more SMCs and smaller GRCs is consistent with the trend towards smaller constituencies, said Assoc Prof Chong. This potentially limits risks for the PAP, he added.
“Previously when they would lose a GRC, they have several ministers go. Now with things broken up a little bit more, any potential loss can be minimised more,” he said.
The trend towards smaller constituencies started during the 2020 General Election, after then Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said in 2016 that Singapore would have to “strike the right balance” between big GRCs, small GRCs and SMCs.
Creating smaller GRCs and more SMCs in the 2015 and 2011 elections gave rise to good results, he said at the time, adding that he would instruct the EBRC to further reduce the average size of GRCs and create more SMCs when it was next appointed.
