“A DIFFERENCE WORLD”
Analyst Camille Grand of the European Council on Foreign Relations said there are “two theories” on how a second Trump term could go for NATO.
“One is that it will be like the first time, unpleasant but not catastrophic,” he said.
“Or, we are today in a different world with a Trump entourage who are unwaveringly Trumpist, who share his doubts about alliances, support for Ukraine; and especially during the first mandate there was no war in Europe.”
In a bid to appeal to Trump, NATO leaders have sought to repeatedly credit him with making other allies cough up more on defence.
The urgency on spending in Europe was ramped up by Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and now 23 of the 32 NATO members reach the target of spending two per cent of gross domestic produce on defence – up from just three a decade ago.
Now the feeling is that Europe will have to do even more to make sure it can stand on its own.
“I expect a serious push to finally start taking our security and defence in Europe seriously, to invest much more, to finally do it,” said one former senior NATO diplomat.
But the ex-official warned to expect more rhetoric from Trump questioning Washington’s commitment to NATO’s collective defence clause that would “undermine security” and could embolden Russia and China.
For Ukraine, already struggling to hold back the Kremlin’s forces on the battlefield, the picture appears grim.
Trump has cast doubt on continuing US military support for Kyiv and promised to cut a quick deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war.
“If Trump starts negotiations with Russia, it will be very transactional, not built on values and principles – and this may lead to a result that would be catastrophic for Ukraine and for the whole of Europe,” the former diplomat said.
Other officials agreed that Ukraine was in a perilous position, but said Trump coming to power could give Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy the cover to make hard compromises.
And if Putin pushes for too much he could find the notoriously whimsical Trump far from pliant – and even willing to back Kyiv harder if the Kremlin doesn’t give ground.
“The Russians always make exaggerated demands,” said the first NATO diplomat.
“If they annoy Trump too much, they will get something in return they weren’t counting for.”
