BROKERING PEACE
Analysts believe that Trump, in seeking a quick peace deal, is trying to put Ukraine in a position where it will be forced to give in and negotiate.
“The quickest way of doing that is to hinder Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting. And I think that’s what Trump has been about virtually since he was elected,” said Graeme Gill, professor emeritus of government and international relations at the University of Sydney.
“The quickest way to bring that peace is to bring the parties to the negotiating table,” he told CNA938. “And one way of doing that, through Ukraine at least, is to cut off support to Ukraine.”
While Ukraine has managed to stockpile munitions, it may feel the impact when the US shuts down intelligence and information sharing, said Curtin University’s Muraviev.
“Then the Ukrainians won’t be able to have the same level of situational awareness of the battlefield as they do now,” he said, adding that Ukraine’s European partners are “no match to what the US brings to the table” when it comes to gathering intelligence.
“That would certainly give the Russians more of an advantage in the short run.”
The pause in aid, which will apply to all military equipment not yet inside Ukraine, will last until Trump determines that the country’s leaders demonstrate a good-faith commitment to peace, according to media reports.
Earlier on Monday, Trump – who has upended US policy on Ukraine after taking office by adopting a more conciliatory approach towards Moscow – warned that he would “not put up” much longer with Zelenskyy’s stance on the war.
“Zelenskyy and Trump seem to be clearly at loggerheads,” Larres told CNA’s Asia First.
“What Trump seems to have in mind is to end the war as quickly as possible, possibly within weeks, and he wants to obtain economic advantages from doing so.”
