WHAT WILL ISRAEL DO NEXT?
Dorsey said that Israel is likely to continue its campaign in Lebanon. Israel could be looking to target the next layer of leadership – including Safieddine, and is also expected to focus on degrading Hezbollah’s weapons arsenal.
Nestorovic took a more positive stance, saying Israel likely reached its goal of crippling Hezbollah’s command and could be looking at negotiation with the group’s new leadership when it is formed.
Israel has said its air strikes in Lebanon aims to stop Hezbollah’s aerial attacks across the border, which has displaced about 60,000 residents from Israel’s north.
Hezbollah has been launching near-daily rockets and drones on northern Israel since Oct 8 last year, in solidarity with Hamas, a day after the latter’s unprecedented incursion into Israel ignited the current war in Gaza.
“I don’t think (Israel) will push their advantage, because the aim has been clear from the beginning: They want to be sure that no one from Lebanon can attack Israel,” said Nestorovic.
“If there is a reorganisation of Hezbollah and Israel manages to get some kind of deal with Hezbollah not to attack the northern part of Israel, I think they will stop.”
WHAT’S NEXT IN THE CONFLICT?
While Hezbollah has been dealt severe blows, Dorsey pointed out that it has a history of leaders being targeted and killed by Israel. In fact, Nasrallah’s predecessor Abbas al-Musawi was also killed by Israel in 1992.
“Yet, these organisations (Hezbollah and Hamas) have survived and have grown,” said Dorsey.
Nestorovic cautioned that Hezbollah still wields a sizable arsenal and a loyal following.
“I don’t think that Hezbollah has been eliminated – far from that. They still have the missiles, they still have tens of thousands of people who are ready to fight and die for Hezbollah, so their force is still present,” he said.
He added that it now depends on Hezbollah’s new leadership’s approach and if both sides are willing to negotiate.
Dorsey added that a ceasefire in Gaza is still the elusive key for peace to prevail.
