A spokesperson for the Saudi Embassy in Washington did not answer questions about Kushner’s discussions with MbS.
In a Sep 18 speech, MbS said the kingdom would not recognize Israel without the creation a Palestinian state, suggesting a deal may be near impossible for the foreseeable future. That’s a shift from February when three sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia was willing to accept a political commitment from Israel to create a Palestinian state, rather than anything more binding, in a bid to get a defence pact with Washington approved before the US presidential election.
To encourage Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel, the Biden administration has offered Riyadh security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program and a renewed push for a Palestinian state. The deal could reshape the Middle East by uniting two long-time foes and binding the world’s biggest oil exporter to Washington at a time when China is making inroads in the region.
But the Gaza conflict has thrown the talks into uncertainty. The war and humanitarian crisis have strengthened Arab and Muslim support for the Palestinians in their decades-long conflict with Israel over land and statehood, making it difficult for Riyadh to discuss recognising Israel without addressing Palestinian aspirations.
The US election is also a factor as Trump, a Republican, vies with Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, in a historically tight race for the White House.
The Saudi relationship with Trump was notably close. Trump’s first foreign trip as president in 2017 was to Riyadh, accompanied by Kushner. After Saudi expatriate opposition journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Trump stood by the crown prince in spite of a US intelligence assessment that he had authorised the killing. MbS denied involvement.
Two sources familiar with Saudi strategy said that if Trump returns to the White House, the crown prince would welcome making a deal with Israel under his leadership. If Harris were to win, the agreement would still move forward, the sources said. Either way, the sources see it as a win-win for MbS, even if it requires a few more months of patience.
On Sep 27, Israeli Prime Benjamin Netanyahu referred to the prospect of an agreement in positive terms. “What blessing such a peace with Saudi Arabia would bring,” he said in a speech to the UN General Assembly.
Normalising Israeli-Saudi relations would mark an expansion of the “Abraham Accords” sealed when Trump was in office. The accords led to the normalisation of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Kushner, who is close to Israel, led the negotiations as a senior adviser in Trump’s White House.
Three sources close to Kushner said that if Trump wins November’s presidential election, they expect Kushner to be involved in the Saudi talks, albeit in an unofficial capacity. A spokesperson for Kushner denied that he is seeking such a role.
If Kushner were to be involved in diplomatic talks as a private citizen in a second Trump term, it could pose a significant conflict of interest, ethics experts say, putting Kushner in the extraordinary position of conducting government-level negotiations with one of his major financial investors.
While Kushner and his wife, Ivanka Trump, have largely stayed away from Trump’s campaign events, they were present at the Republican National Convention in July, sitting and clapping in the family box behind Trump.
