If any rival can benefit, it is likely All Quiet on the Western Front, Netflix’s German-language World War I movie that dominated Britain’s BAFTAs.
Another potential beneficiary is Top Gun: Maverick, the long-awaited sequel from Tom Cruise – no less a figure than Steven Spielberg recently said the actor and his film “might have saved the entire theatrical industry” from the pandemic.
“It was that movie that brought audiences back to movie theaters,” said the anonymous Oscars voter.
TOSS-UPS
While the best picture race has a clear favourite, the acting contests are incredibly tight.
“I can’t remember a year, at least in the time I’ve been doing it, where three of the four acting categories were true toss-ups,” said Feinberg.
For best actress, Cate Blanchett had long been favourite to win a third Oscar for Tar, but Everything Everywhere love could propel Yeoh to a historic first win by an Asian woman in the category.
“I think that Michelle Yeoh will probably win,” said the Oscars voter. “Cate Blanchett has already won twice … some people vote with that in the back of their mind.”
Best actor is a three-horse race between Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale) and Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin).
And the supporting actress race may be even closer.
Angela Bassett, the first Marvel superhero actor ever nominated with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, is up against Everything Everywhere star Jamie Lee Curtis and Banshees actress Kerry Condon.
One category does appear to be locked.
Ke Huy Quan, the former child star of Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and The Goonies, has won every best supporting actor prize going and looks near-certain to complete a comeback story for the ages.
THE SLAP
Hanging over the ceremony is the specter of The Slap – the shocking moment at last year’s Oscars when Smith assaulted Chris Rock on stage for cracking a joke about his wife.
At a press conference this week, Oscars executive producer Molly McNearney said: “We’re going to acknowledge it, and then we’re going to move on.”
