Formula One fans know to expect the unexpected but it would still be quite a surprise should McLaren fail to secure the constructors’ title in Azerbaijan this weekend with an unprecedented seven rounds to spare.
The reigning champions have won 12 of 16 races so far this season, with seven one-two finishes, and are returning to a Baku city circuit where current leader Oscar Piastri sped to victory last year.
A one-two result would clinch a 10th constructors’ crown for McLaren, and second in succession, but so too would beating closest rivals Ferrari by nine points, providing Mercedes or Red Bull do not win big.
To put it in perspective, Ferrari have only once this campaign outscored McLaren and then by only six points in Canada after Lando Norris and teammate Piastri collided with the Briton retiring.
McLaren have scored 22 points more than Ferrari on average in the other 15 races and arrive in Baku with a lead of 337 points and 346 still to be won after Sunday’s race.
Mercedes and Red Bull have also outscored McLaren just once, by 28 and six points respectively in Canada.
Piastri, 31 points clear of Norris, has scored in every race and been off the podium only twice while Norris has drawn two blanks.
Ferrari, meanwhile, have yet to win or see seven-times world champion Lewis Hamilton stand on the podium in their red overalls.
The odds all point to a McLaren celebration on Sunday with the team set to eclipse Red Bull’s 2023 feat of wrapping up the title with six rounds remaining and overtake Williams as the second most successful team of all time after Ferrari.
That would then leave Piastri and Norris unleashed in their drivers’ duel with the prospect of a fight down to the wire without team orders.
LECLERC CHASING FIFTH STRAIGHT BAKU POLE
Ferrari will still be strong opponents this weekend, however, with Charles Leclerc chasing a fifth successive Baku pole position.
“I think we have a couple of tracks where we are supposed to be also in good shape, starting with the next one. We are historically always in good shape in Baku,” team boss Fred Vasseur told reporters at the previous round in Monza.
“But for sure the goal is to finish P2 in the championship. McLaren is on another planet.”
Red Bull could also be back in the mix, with four-times world champion Max Verstappen winning at Monza from pole position.
The Dutch driver had a hard time in Baku last year, finishing fifth and one place behind Norris who had started 15th.
Mercedes will want Italian rookie Kimi Antonelli to raise his game after what team boss Toto Wolff described as an “underwhelming” home race in Monza.
“We lost some ground to our competitors in Monza and know we need to perform better in the closing eight races than we did in Italy if we are to come out on top,” said the Austrian.
Haas driver Oliver Bearman stood in for suspended Kevin Magnussen in Baku last year and now finds himself at risk of suffering a similar ban after amassing 10 penalty points within a 12-month period.
The Briton will have to tread carefully, with two more points triggering an automatic ban.
