Beijing is likely to “be much more careful and skeptical” about what its military may claim that it could do with respect to Taiwan, he said, adding that the Chinese will take notice of the cost of war to Russia and the solidarity of the West and much of the global community.
The US is in a different position, said Mr Crabtree. “Actually, the war has been somewhat positive for the US, in the sense that its reputation has been enhanced. It’s been able to marshal its allies, it’s been able to provide high tech weaponry.”
However, supporting Ukraine is causing a big drain on the US’ military resources and is taking too much of the leadership’s attention, he noted.
“The more it has to support Ukraine in terms of weapons and the limited attention of its leadership, the harder it will be for the US also, to really focus on what it needs to do, to balance China in this part of the world.”
Asia is watching the situation closely, and there is also a growing concern that tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan would play out in the same way.
“I think there’s a heightened nervousness,” said Mr Crabtree, adding that countries have been spending more on defence in recent times.