A telegraphed attack on a well defended US base could be a first step in reducing tensions provided there are no US casualties, Energy Aspects said in a post.
“Unless there are indications of further Iranian retaliation or escalation by Israel/the US then we may see some geopolitical risk premium come out of the price in subsequent days,” it said.
There was no interruption to QatarEnergy shipments or production after the attack, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, and no other Iranian attack detected at any US military base other than in Qatar, a US military official told Reuters. Qatar is one of the world’s largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, and all its shipments pass through the Strait.
Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil Company said international oil majors including BP, TotalEnergies and Eni had evacuated some staff members working in oilfields.
“In one sense, we’ve seen this movie before. All the geopolitical tensions we’ve seen in the Middle East, whether it’s Israel, Iran or others, we have yet to see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even though the issue always rears its ugly head,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
At least two supertankers made U-turns near the Strait of Hormuz following US military strikes on Iran, ship tracking data shows, as more than a week of violence in the region prompted vessels to speed, pause, or alter their journeys.
US President Trump expressed a desire to see oil prices kept down amid fears that ongoing fighting in the Middle East could cause them to spike. On his Truth Social platform, he addressed the US Department of Energy, encouraging “drill, baby, drill” and saying, “I mean now.”
Investors are still weighing up the extent of the geopolitical risk premium, given the Middle East crisis has yet to crimp supply.
HSBC expects Brent prices to spike above US$80 a barrel to factor in a higher probability of a Strait of Hormuz closure, but to recede again if the threat of disruption does not materialise, the bank said on Monday.
