WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE TALKS
In terms of what could be achieved at the talks, Mitchell said he does not expect an immediate resolution given that Kyiv and Moscow “are pretty far apart”.
“The dialogue is important … but there’s no real common ground here that would lead to a fast conclusion of the war, unfortunately. Anything is possible, but there’s some distance to cover here,” he added.
Gill said that while Kyiv’s and Moscow’s positions on issues like territory are currently “irreconcilable”, it is unclear what the “basic red-line issues” are and what either side is willing to compromise on.
He noted there is “room for some agreement” on the issue of Ukraine’s desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) military alliance. Kyiv has said it will be willing to forgo membership in exchange for a security guarantee.
Moscow has said it does not want Ukraine to join NATO, but acknowledged all countries in the region should have security guarantees.
“The issue again is that Russia has the whip hand in terms of the battlefield situation, and therefore that puts it in a much stronger position in the negotiations than Ukraine is,” Gill said.
He added that reaching a settlement is more in Kyiv’s interests rather than Russia’s.
“If there’s no settlement, presumably, what’s going to happen is that the war will continue its existing trajectory, and that is that the Russians will continue to gain ground in Ukraine,” he said.
