“We have what looks kind of like La Nina conditions. We are seeing some of the signs of La Nina but it is not a strong one,” noted Mr Tan Wee Leng, senior research scientist at the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Specialised Meteorological Centre.
“We predict for the next few months – using a lot of different … seasonal climate models – that these La Nina-like conditions will persist for the next couple of months. But it’s predicted to return to neutral in April.”
The World Meteorological Organization also said in its latest update last month that any upcoming La Nina event is likely to be weak and short-lived.
OUTLOOK AFTER JUNE REMAINS UNCLEAR
Conditions are not expected to return to normal up until about June.
As for what the skies will look like after June, Mr Tan said it is “still too early” to forecast what happens to ENSO then.
“Specifically for ENSO, predictions after the northern hemisphere’s spring tend to be more uncertain, sometimes termed to be the spring predictability barrier,” he said.
Mr Tan added that current weather models are largely not giving any indication of El Nino or La Nina events in the second half of the year, or whether things will remain neutral.
The situation will become clearer around May, he said.
“Typically, El Nino events occur every three to seven years. Our last El Nino was in 2023 and 2024, so just purely based on that, we would not expect El Nino (this year) – but there has been precedent. It has happened before,” Mr Tan pointed out.
But some things are a given, like the two monsoon periods that Singapore undergoes every year – the southwest monsoon season starting around May, and the northeast monsoon season which typically runs from December to March.
