The Kremlin readout suggested that Mr Putin has not budged on any of his long-stated maximum demands to end the war in Ukraine: Not his territorial demands for the control of four annexed regions and certainly not the demilitarisation of Ukraine, including its non-membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and restricted size of its armed forces.
Importantly, Mr Trump seemingly lacked a contingency plan for this outcome.
Rebuffing the American proposal was always going to be a big gamble for Mr Putin – one that risks the US imposing further sanctions on Russia or even boosting American military support to Ukraine as a way of exerting pressure.
THE BALL IS IN DONALD TRUMP’S COURT
A week after the US-Ukraine deal put the “ball in Russia’s court”, Mr Trump now finds it in his court. Will he put more pressure on Ukraine to accede to Russia’s demands or will he resort to putting pressure on Russia?
The former is more likely than the latter, given how Trump has played his cards so far. But there are limits as to how successful this approach will be.
In fact, Mr Trump might come to realise soon that he has reached the end of the road with Ukraine and that pressure on Russia will be the only way to move forward if he is as serious about peace as he has insisted.
Stefan Wolff is Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham and Head of the Department of Political Science and International Studies.
