POSSIBLE RENEGOTIATION OF DEAL UNDER TRUMP
If Trump wins the election, experts said he will likely scrap a deal reached under President Joe Biden’s administration last month, and force Seoul to pay more to host about 28,500 American troops based in South Korea.
Both countries in October agreed that Seoul will pay US$1.1 billion in 2026, when a new five-year defence cost-sharing deal kicks in. That is an increase of 8.3 per cent compared with 2025.
But Trump has said he wants to seek as much as US$10 billion from South Korea.
Asan Institute of Policy Studies’ Cha said Trump could ask for re-negotiation of the deal, and South Korea may have to promise a substantial increase in what it pays the US even if the new deal is not as extreme as Trump’s suggestion.
“South Korea could request solid assurances regarding the North Korean nuclear threat, commensurate with the increased financial contributions it is making,” Cha noted.
“In this case, given that the Trump administration tends to prioritise economic benefits, the negotiations might actually become easier in some respects.”
No matter the outcome of any negotiations, however, analysts said it is unlikely Trump will pull American troops from South Korea if he is elected – something he had previously threatened to do.
They also expressed optimism that cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan will continue.
“Even during the first term of the Trump government, the US tried a lot to restore the relationship between Japan and Korea and make trilateral cooperation,” said Sejong Institute’s Kim.
“What I worry about is, if Trump requests a lot of budget-sharing and then puts tariffs on Japan and South Korea, I’m not sure how the South Korean and Japanese government would be willing to cooperate on the trilateral format.”
