NEW YORK :Global stocks dropped for a third straight session on Monday as the recent bout of elevated U.S. Treasury yields prompted profit-taking at the end of a strong year for equities.
On Wall Street, all three major U.S. indexes were broadly lower but off earlier lows, with energy the only gainer among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield’s recent push above the 4.5 per cent mark after the Federal Reserve on Dec. 18 signaled that it would take a slower interest rate-cut path has fueled concerns about elevated stock market valuations.
“The bond market has somewhat taken its cue from what’s happening in the equities market,” said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
“Investors did some profit-taking in equities and maybe re-deployed to fixed income. At this point, the bond market is compelling given the recent rise in bond yields over the past weeks.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 286.59 points, or 0.65 per cent, to 42,712.11, the S&P 500 fell 41.52 points, or 0.70 per cent, to 5,929.32, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 139.41 points, or 0.68 per cent, to 19,587.23.
In a Sunday note, Julian Emanuel, senior managing director leading equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy at Evercore ISI in New York, said rising bond yields are the biggest challenge to the current cyclical bull market, with key levels for the 10-year yield at 4.5 per cent, 4.75 per cent and 5 per cent.
U.S. stocks have rallied this year, with the S&P 500 up more than 24 per cent, buoyed by growth expectations surrounding artificial intelligence, expected rate cuts from the Fed, and more recently, the likelihood of deregulation policies from the incoming Trump administration.
But the recent economic forecast from the Fed, along with worries that Trump’s policies such as tariffs may prove to be inflationary, have sent yields higher, with the 10-year reaching its highest level since May 2 at 4.641 per cent last week.
U.S. yields were lower on Monday, however, and briefly extended declines after data showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted more than expected in December.
Other data showed U.S. pending home sales rose more than expected in November, in a fourth straight month of gains, as buyers took advantage of better inventory despite elevated mortgage rates.
MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe lost 5.05 points, or 0.59 per cent, to 846.57, but is still up more than 16 per cent on the year.
Trading volumes were muted ahead of the New Year holiday on Wednesday. Stock markets in Germany, Italy and Switzerland are also closed on Tuesday, while those in the UK and France have a half-day trading session.
European stocks were also weaker due to elevated yields, with the 10-year German bund yield holding near six-week highs. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.46 per cent, its first decline after three straight sessions of gains.
Bond investors may also be wary of increasing supply as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has promised tax cuts with little in the way of details for restraining government spending.
The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 6.8 basis points to 4.551 per cent.
Widening interest rate differentials have boosted the appeal of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against other major currencies, is up 6.6 per cent on the year. On Monday, the index rose 0.1 per cent to 108.09, with the euro down 0.27 per cent at $1.0399. The single currency is down nearly 6 per cent on the year versus the greenback.
Against the yen, the dollar weakened 0.51 per cent to 157.01 but was still holding at levels which recently prompted an intervention in the currency by Japanese officials.
U.S. crude advanced 0.67 per cent to $71.07 a barrel, and Brent rose to $74.40 per barrel, up 0.31 per cent on the day.
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