Three Taipei-based security sources, speaking on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the matter, said that based on the latest intelligence assessments, chances of war games starting this weekend were high.
One source described a “busier” than usual scene in the waters around Taiwan which might be China positioning itself for the possible drills.
A northbound Russian naval fleet, which included three frigates and one supply vessel, on Monday, approached close to Taiwan’s contiguous zone 45km off its southeastern coasts and conducted joint simulated attacks on “foreign vessels and aircraft” with a Chinese destroyer nearby, the source said.
The Russian fleet entered the East China Sea early on Tuesday, and the source said it was expected to continue joint military manoeuvres with its Chinese counterparts as it heads north.
Meanwhile, China has deployed close to 40 vessels in the region, including a Chinese aircraft carrier group led by Liaoning in the East China Sea as well as other naval and coast guard boats in the South China Sea.
“The assessments show that China might be making deployment for the drills after the visit,” the source said, referring to Lai’s Pacific trip.
A second source told Reuters that what would be unusual winter drills for China’s military would be the kind of practice they would need to be able to attack Taiwan should the need come at any time of the year.
“China has been honing their ability to operate at night, and being able to fight in bad weather is another skill they need to get right,” the source added.
