COMMON STRATEGIC INTERESTS
For both global superpowers, the Thailand-Cambodia conflict was not merely a border skirmish – it represented a strategic flashpoint in a region central to both US and Chinese economic and geopolitical interests, experts said.
Prolonged fighting and instability risks disrupting trade corridors, undermining infrastructure investments, and damaging political capital accumulated over decades, they added.
China’s interests in keeping the region stable was both “economic and strategic”, said Karuppannan, adding Beijing had poured billions into infrastructure and energy projects through its Belt and Road Initiative, with Cambodia being one of its most loyal partners in the region.
“China relies upon Southeast Asia for not only supplies, but also exports, and trade, and investments,” he said. “Disruption here would actually bring about … a big disaster in so far as global trade is concerned.”
“Whether they (China and the US) like it or not, they have to keep Southeast Asia intact.”
Ean noted Beijing’s delicate balancing act, carefully protecting its “extensive economic stakes in Thailand and strategic ties with Cambodia”.
“China’s bilateral trade with Thailand is very large while trade with Cambodia has grown to record levels,” he said.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Thailand’s Chulalongkorn University, said China’s risk calculus was clear.
“China does not want to see a military conflict and attendant instability in mainland Southeast Asia, which it considers its backyard.”
Even with an official ceasefire in place, experts said the situation remained fragile and have also cast doubt on whether the deal would hold.
“I am very sceptical that this ceasefire will work,” said Kurlantzick, noting that there had already been reports of “continued fighting”.
“I’m not sure the ceasefire will make it out this week.”
Still, experts agreed that willingness from both Washington and Beijing to support the diplomatic process reflected a rare moment of alignment.
For now, preserving regional calm is key for “everybody’s self-interest”, Karuppannan said bluntly.
