BANGKOK :The Thai economy improved in April from March and the outlook remains in line with its downwardly revised forecast for this year with the impact of U.S. tariffs to be seen in the second half, the central bank said on Friday.
The manufacturing sector improved after a sharp increase in exports drove inventory restocking, the Bank of Thailand said in a statement, but noted activity data was not yet reflecting the U.S. tariffs, which were announced in early April.
“The second quarter started to show some impact, especially on confidence, but it’s not clear yet,” Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-Anant told a press conference.
“Things are changing every day. The picture will be clearer in the third and fourth quarters,” she added.
At the end of April, the Bank of Thailand cut its central-case forecast for growth this year to 2 per cent, and Chayawadee said the outlook for the economy remained close to that.
“If we look at the picture now, I must say that the picture may be more in line with the reference scenario that we have given, which is around 2 per cent or maybe better, because Q1 started out quite well and (global) trade negotiations were quite okay,” she said.
Thailand faces a 36 per cent U.S. tariff if a reduction can’t be negotiated before a global moratorium expires in July. The government has submitted a proposal to Washington, but has yet to hold trade talks.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy expanded 2.5 per cent last year, lagging regional peers.
While the tourism sector slightly improved in April from March, it remained weaker compared to the same period last year, the central bank said.
Exports to the U.S. slowed slightly but remained at a high level, the BOT said.
Total exports rose 9.9 per cent in April from a year earlier and imports increased by 17.3 per cent, the BOT said, leading to a trade deficit of $1.4 billion. The current account deficit was $1.5 billion in April.
