2°C WARMING NOW ON THE RADAR
Although “exceptionally unlikely” at one per cent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2°C of warming.
“It’s the first time we’ve ever seen such an event in our computer predictions,” said the Met Office’s Adam Scaife.
“It is shocking” and “that probability is going to rise”.
He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5°C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.
“DANGEROUS” LEVEL OF WARMING
Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice and glaciers.
This year’s climate is offering no respite.
Last week, China recorded temperatures exceeding 40°C in some areas, the United Arab Emirates hit nearly 52°C, and Pakistan was buffeted by deadly winds following an intense heatwave.
“We’ve already hit a dangerous level of warming,” with recent “deadly floods in Australia, France, Algeria, India, China and Ghana, wildfires in Canada,” said climatologist Friederike Otto of Imperial College London.
“Relying on oil, gas and coal in 2025 is total lunacy.”
Davide Faranda, from France’s CNRS National Centre for Scientific Research, added: “The science is unequivocal: to have any hope of staying within a safe climate window, we must urgently cut fossil fuel emissions and accelerate the transition to clean energy.”
