IS THE SUPREME COURT LIKELY TO STEP IN?
The Supreme Court is not obligated to review every case appealed to it, but it is widely expected to weigh in on Trump’s tariffs because of the weighty constitutional questions at the heart of the case.
If the Federal Circuit rules in the coming weeks, there is still time for the Supreme Court to add the case to its regular docket for the 2025 to 2026 term, which begins on Oct 6.
The Supreme Court could rule before the end of the year, but that would require it to move quickly.
HOW MIGHT THE SUPREME COURT RULE?
There is no consensus among court-watchers about what the Supreme Court will do.
Critics of Trump’s tariffs are optimistic that their side will win. They point to the Supreme Court’s decision from 2023 that blocked President Joe Biden from forgiving student loan debt.
In that ruling, the justices limited the authority of the executive branch to take action on issues of “vast economic and political significance” except where Congress has explicitly authorised the action.
The justices in other cases, however, have endorsed a broad view of presidential power, especially when it comes to foreign affairs.
CAN IMPORTERS SEEK REFUNDS FOR TARIFFS PAID?
If Trump loses at the Supreme Court, importers are likely to seek refunds of tariffs already paid. This would be a lengthy process given the large number of anticipated claims.
Federal regulations dictate that such requests would be first heard by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP). If that agency denies a refund request, the importer can appeal to the Court of International Trade.
There is precedent for tariff refund requests being granted.
Since May, CBP has been processing refunds to importers who inadvertently overpaid duties because of tariff “stacking” – where multiple overlapping tariffs are applied to the same imports.
And in the 1990s, after the Court of International Trade struck down a tax on exporters that was being used to finance improvements to US harbours, the court set up a process for issuing refunds. That decision was upheld by both the Federal Circuit and the Supreme Court.
