Trump previously suggested that a ceasefire deal could involve territorial exchanges.
Russia’s hardline demands for ending the conflict include Ukrainian withdrawal of forces from regions Moscow claims to have annexed, amounting to about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory. Ukraine has rejected ceding parts of its land.
“(Putin’s) goal is also to frame the Ukrainians and Europeans as the obstacles to peace. But if the Ukrainians were to accept that demand, that would be very destabilising to Kyiv,” said Orr.
IS TRUMP EMBOLDENING RUSSIA?
Some analysts said they believe harsher sanctions targeting Russia’s economy could be instrumental in pushing Moscow into a fairer peace deal.
“The only element that could really weaken Putin’s hand is everything related to the Russian economy. Trump will have to reach for new sanctions against Moscow in order to really get it to weaken its negotiating position,” said Orr.
“In theory, there can be much greater restrictions on Russia’s oil and gas sector, like LNG (liquified natural gas) exports … or secondary sanctions on countries that are cooperating with Russia economically.”
However, Orr cautioned Putin likely does not believe Washington will do that, as it will hurt US bilateral relationships with key partners – including India – that are still purchasing Russian commodities.
