The winner of Tuesday’s (Nov 5) US presidential election will govern a nation of more than 330 million people, but the contest will almost certainly be decided by just tens of thousands of voters – a tiny fraction of the populace – in a handful of states.
That’s because only seven of the 50 states are truly competitive this year, with the rest all comfortably Democratic or Republican, according to public opinion polls.
Among those seven battlegrounds, Pennsylvania, the most populous, stands out as the most likely state to determine whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump is the next president.
The candidates’ strategies reflect this reality, with the vast majority of their ad spending and campaign events directed at those seven states that swing between political parties.
Here is a closer look at why the US presidential race will be decided by a small subset of Americans:
WHY ISN’T THE ELECTION DECIDED BY THE NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE?
Unlike elections for other federal candidates and statewide offices, the presidential contest is not solely based on the popular vote. Instead, under a system known as the Electoral College, the winning candidate in each state, as well as Washington DC, receives that state’s electoral votes, which are largely based on population.
A candidate needs to win a majority of the country’s 538 electoral votes, or 270, which is possible even when losing the overall national vote, as Trump did when he won the White House in 2016.
In the event of a 269-269 tie, the US House of Representatives chooses the winner, with each state’s delegation getting a single vote – a scenario that analysts say would likely favour former President Trump.
If every state aside from the battlegrounds votes as expected, that would give Vice President Harris 226 electoral votes and Trump 219, with the remaining 93 up for grabs.
