NUCLEAR NOT HIGH PRIORITY
The headway that Southeast Asian countries have been making with renewables points to the possibility of greening the regional power grid without having to adopt nuclear energy.
“According to industry analysis, Southeast Asia has abundant renewable energy potential, estimated to be 40 to 50 times the current total electricity generation in the region,” noted Mr Sharad Somani, partner and head of infrastructure advisory at professional services firm KPMG Asia Pacific.
In fact, even though ASEAN is likely missing its 2025 renewable energy target, Dr Zulfikar said that achieving it by 2030 “remains feasible” through existing national policies.
And there are other clean energy options on the horizon too.
“Emerging technologies, such as tidal and wave, green hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel, remain as viable long-term options for energy diversification and decarbonisation,” he added.
Sustainable aviation fuels refers to the use of biofuel, for example, in place of conventional aviation fuel, a major carbon emitter.
By comparison, as set out in the first two instalments in this Big Read series, high upfront costs and safety concerns have caused nuclear energy programmes to stall in this region.
Furthermore, the nuclear accident in Chernobyl, Ukraine in 1986 and the meltdown of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima, Japan in 2011 still weigh heavily on public perception of nuclear energy, which means countries in this region that want to adopt it will need to undertake public education efforts.
In contrast, renewable energy sources tend to enjoy a higher level of public awareness and are viewed more favourably than nuclear energy.
And while overall energy demand in Southeast Asia is expected to increase, this growth is unequal, which is why the adoption of renewable energy is treated with different levels of urgency from country to country.
For example, energy demand per capita in Myanmar or Cambodia is about a quarter of the world average, but Singapore’s is three times higher than the world average.
All these factors have led to an uneven attitude towards nuclear energy even among neighbouring countries.
For example, some countries such as Singapore and Malaysia have cautiously reiterated that nuclear energy is an option being studied. But others in ASEAN such as Vietnam and Indonesia have announced their intentions or even plans to deploy it.
“Countries with relatively less energy demand and small land areas will find that nuclear energy will not be their priority since they can rely on other energy sources like coal, gas, and renewables,” said Dr Zulfikar.
Even without looking into nuclear energy, countries in Southeast Asia that are deploying less renewable energy due to constraints could potentially tap their more resources-endowed neighbours to decarbonise their power sector, should there be a robust infrastructure supporting it.
“(This is where) the significance of the ASEAN Power Grid for a green energy future cannot be overstated,” said Mr Sharad of KPMG Asia Pacific.
The ASEAN Power Grid is a project mooted in the 1990s to enhance electricity trade across borders by linking the power grids of the regional neighbours. Though beset with its own financial and technical challenges, bilateral links between some countries have been built.
“By leveraging each country’s natural resources in solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and others, a collective clean energy transition becomes achievable,” said Mr Sharad.
THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR
Even so, experts said nuclear energy still remains an option worth contemplating for the long run.
While renewable energy sources are theoretically unlimited by nature, there are in fact limitations to how much or how often they can be harnessed.
The intermittency of certain renewable energy sources that are at the mercy of the weather, such as solar, wind and, to some extent, hydro, means that they cannot be relied on exclusively as things stand.
They need to be deployed together with efficient energy storage systems, or complemented with other sources of clean energy.
This is also where nuclear can plug the gap.
Dr Victor Nian, founding co-chairman of Singapore-based independent think tank Centre for Strategic Energy and Resources, pointed out, too, that no national grids have been designed for renewable energy.
“The intermittency and seasonal – or in our (region’s) case, day and night – unavailability poses great technical threat to the safe, smooth and efficient operation of the power grid,” he said.
Meanwhile, nuclear energy is a thermal source, akin to gas-fired power plants but without greenhouse gas emissions. Hence it is more “grid-friendly” – it can be added to a country’s national electricity grid and storage infrastructure quite easily, hence reducing the need for significant investment costs that would be passed on to consumers.
As much as some nations may want to maximise their potential capacity for renewable energy, physical constraints such as land size put a limit on this, a pertinent concern especially in light of growing energy demand.
For example, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Energy Market Authority and the National Environmental Agency told CNA TODAY: “Singapore is one of the most solar-dense cities in the world and is continuing to maximise the deployment of solar photovoltaic systems.
“However, even at its technical maximum limit, solar will meet less than 10 per cent of our projected energy demand by 2050.”
Dr Nian noted that in balancing economic competitiveness with meeting climate and energy goals, countries like Singapore need solutions that can provide reliable, stable, economical and low-carbon electricity with very high energy density.
“Nuclear is the only energy source that simultaneously qualifies (for) all of those attributes, but Singapore must do its due diligence to ensure safety while harnessing energy from the atoms,” he said.
And even as countries double down on clean energy to mitigate the climate emergency, climate change is expected to adversely affect the supply or efficiency of some renewable energy, raising long-term concerns for this source of electricity.
Erratic weather conditions could impact the intermittency of wind and solar energy, for instance, and even hydropower, the mainstay of renewables in this region.
A 2021 IEA study expects that climate change would pose “serious challenges” to hydropower in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
“They can affect hydropower generation by increasing variability in streamflow, shifting seasonal flows and augmenting evaporation losses from reservoirs” on top of hindering the development of future hydropower projects, said the report.
“From now until the end of the century, the regional mean hydropower capacity factor is projected to decrease due to changing climate conditions.”
Experts said that the main advantage nuclear has as a clean energy source compared to many renewables is its stability and reliability.
This is why some countries in this region are still keeping all options on the table, with some taking more active steps than others in seriously mulling nuclear.
NOT ONE AGAINST THE OTHER
Ultimately, it does not have to be about picking one over the other – countries which have already deployed renewables are also exploring nuclear energy, too.
For example, the Philippines, which already generates about one-tenth of its electricity through renewables, will begin a feasibility study with South Korea come 2025, aiming to assess reopening the dormant Bataan Nuclear Power Plant.
Dr Zulfikar said that nuclear energy remains “a viable option for energy transition, despite its complexity”.
Experts noted that nuclear may play an increasing role in the long-term future, especially as countries seek to diversify their energy portfolio.
Beyond barriers presented by public perception, concerns remain over the feasibility of deployment of nuclear energy in land-scarce Singapore, including where to site a nuclear power plant, Dr Chung from SNRSI noted.
But he added that safety advancements in nuclear reactor technologies reduce the probability of severe accidents or contamination, and it would be “at least prudent” to study the possibility of nuclear more deeply.
“We should also not limit ourselves to choosing only either renewable source like solar or nuclear. The energy mix could include all sources available to Singapore and they will complement one another,” said Dr Chung.
Keeping in mind the needs of a small and “alternative energy-disadvantaged nation”, Singapore authorities have emphasised a “four switches” approach to increase the sustainability of power supply – namely natural gas, solar, regional power grids and low-carbon alternatives.
Similarly, Singapore’s neighbours are likely to find a range of sources to meet climate and energy needs, experts said.
While natural gas is likely to be a “key transitional fuel”, nuclear energy may contribute to the region’s energy mix in the longer term, Dr Zulfikar from ACE said.
At the same time, advancements in the renewables field will also help to expand the region’s capacity to deploy renewable energy.
“In the coming decades, ASEAN’s energy mix will diversify, with renewables like solar, wind, and geothermal playing a larger role, supported by energy storage technologies,” he noted.
Agreeing, Dr Nian said Southeast Asian nations will need to continue to take a “portfolio approach” to diversify their sources of energy, especially green energy.
If deemed appropriate, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy and hydrogen could all potentially play a part in the region’s future low carbon technology portfolio, he said.
“Nuclear may play an increasing role in the long-term future, but it will not be the only source.”
